A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
